Butterfly Effect

Mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz raised a unique question at the 139th American Association for the Advancement of Science session. If a butterfly fluttered its wings in Brazil, would that flutter cause a tornado in Texas?

Many may find Edward Lorenz mentally deranged by the question. The reason is that, first of all, there can be no tornado because of the fluttering of the butterfly’s wings. Second, if there was a tornado, how could it be in Texas without Brazil! But the answer to this question may not be what we know. A flurry of butterfly wings can also cause tornadoes. This strange theory is called the ‘butterfly effect. Let’s find out about this butterfly effect.

The origins of the concept of Edward Lorenz and the Butterfly Effect

“It is generally thought that the events that could change the world include the atomic bomb, the insane politicians, the massive earthquake, or any mass movement. But because of modern thinking, people have realized that these are their misconceptions. According to Chaos Theory, changing tiny things or events can change the whole world. When a butterfly flutters its wings in the Amazon jungle, it can cause storms in the rest of Europe. “

– ‘Good Omens’

Although there is little debate about the butterfly effect, Edward Lorenz was the first to be credited with identifying this theory. Edward Lorenz was a professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a mathematician who was the first to talk about the butterfly effect.

He merged his two disciplines, meteorology and mathematics, and established Chaos Theory. In 1950 he was looking for a new way to forecast the weather. Because the model was familiar, it was challenging to make accurate predictions. From this discovery, he discovered the butterfly effect as a new theory with the help of mathematics.

The science of strange, non-linear, and uncertain events is usually called chaos or the science of chaos. Other branches of science generally deal with linear, mathematical, and definite results, such as electrical science, gravity, or chemical reactions. It is possible to calculate the value found for a particular discount or specific conditions in these cases.

But chaos theory usually deals with events that he cannot accurately predict. Notable among these are the stock market, weather, human psychology, business, etc. – about which it is impossible to say anything specific.

However, Lorenz’s question about the fluttering of a butterfly’s wing did not mean that a tornado would occur when a butterfly fluttered its wings in one part of the world. Instead, he wanted to show through this strange question how much the characteristics of a large and complex system can change due to minor changes. He used this new theory to calculate the weather forecast.

Lorenz uses a mathematical value as a prerequisite for forecasting the weather, which is 0.506. This value was a little wider, meaning more digits were after the decimal. Its value was 0.506127. When he counted six numbers after the decimal, a value came up. But when you count to three digits after the decimal, that result is very different from the previous result. You omitted only three numbers after the decimal point, but the result showed many changes.

Thus, he gave about 12 values ​​in the computer program (mainly temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.). From this, Lorenz concludes that the effect of a slight change in the quality of weather forecasting on it is not tiny at all but extensive. That is how the chaotic theory called the butterfly effect was born.

The relationship of butterflies with the butterfly effect

Edward Lorenz published his dissertation in a paper entitled Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow. It gets the award later. The gist of his dissertation was that the weather forecasting models were not wholly accurate. It is because it is impossible to calculate the initial condition or condition value accurately. At the same time, small changes can cause considerable changes in the forecast. To make this theory understandable to the ordinary person, Lorenz gave the idea of ​​the butterfly effect. This concept is also referred to as the ‘sensitive dependence of the initial conditions on the system.

But there is another reason behind calling this effect the ‘butterfly effect. When Lorenz was working on his weather forecast model, he used a variety of weather influencers, such as temperature, wind speed, and humidity, as mentioned earlier.

So, he saw that he was getting different results every time. In no way is he able to recreate a definite effect. He also looked at the values ​​of other influencers, but each time different results came. Putting these values ​​into a graph gives a graph that looks like a butterfly. That is why the name of the butterfly is associated with this theory.