What Putin wants from Kazakhstan?

Two and a half thousand Russian-led troops are now stationed in Kazakhstan to assist the country’s security forces in dealing with the ongoing protests. They are the army of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) alliance. Although they signed the CSTO Defense Agreement in 1999, it has not seen the deployment of joint forces under it for so long. But now, the military alliance has sent troops to deal with the internal unrest in one of its member states (Kazakhstan). Russia is leading this alliance. The Guardian has published an analysis of why the country decided to send troops to Kazakhstan and what they expected in return.

The report said the deployment signaled a “terrible repetition” of Soviet operations in Prague in 1968 and the Hungarian Revolution in 1956.

Recently, Kazakh President Kasim Jomart Tokayev sought the cooperation of the Russian military in dealing with the ongoing protests against rising fuel prices. About two and a half thousand Russian-led troops have already arrived in Kazakhstan. They also helped the Kazakh army recapture Almaty airport from protesters yesterday. Russian authorities have temporarily deployed troops under a military alliance (CSTO) between Russia and the five former Soviet republics.

According to the Guardian’s analysis, the deployment of Russian-led CSTO troops in Kazakhstan has raised new issues in the Warsaw Pact. There was a joke about the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact. It said that this was the only military agreement under which the treaty countries would attack themselves. Such jokes have been made since the military coalition’s tanks were fired on pro-reform protesters in Prague in 1968. Although the CSTO is essentially a military alliance, it has a definite resemblance to the Warsaw Pact. And the decision not to intervene militarily in any country was taken by Moscow.

Maxim Sachkov, director of the Institute for International Studies at the Moscow-based MGIMO University, praised Russia’s decision to intervene in Kazakhstan. He declined to compare the deployment of troops to Kazakhstan with an operation under the Warsaw Pact. Maxim Sachkov called it false propaganda. According to him, Russia will strengthen its position in the region through this short-term mission.

Sachkov expressed these views in a Twitter post. He said the crisis in Kazakhstan was ongoing. Moscow can play a helpful role in overcoming this situation.

In a televised speech yesterday, the Kazakh president said peacekeepers had been sent from Russia and neighboring countries at his request. They will be temporarily stationed in Kazakhstan to ensure security. The Russian-led CSTO has about 2,500 troops. Kasim Tokayev has thanked Russian President Vladimir Putin for sending troops.

What is Putin expecting?

According to the Guardian’s analysis, Putin is likely to hope that the troops sent to Kazakhstan will quickly restore order. Kazakhstan will be grateful and indebted to Moscow for that.

However, there are risks involved in conducting this operation. Many see the deployment of CSTO troops in Kazakhstan as a Russian intervention. Former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s main achievement was to prevent a major conflict between the majority of Kazakhs and the Russian minority ethnic group.

For years, Kazakhstan has pursued a foreign policy of maintaining relations with all world countries. The country has close ties with Russia. Kazakhstan also maintains good relations with the West. Moscow is not happy about Kazakhstan’s good relations with the West. In that case, Moscow could send troops to Kazakhstan to get some of the country’s demands met.

Soon after the Kazakh president sent troops to the CSTO, Margarita Simonian, editor-in-chief of Russia’s state-run RT news agency, hinted. “Of course, we should cooperate,” he wrote on Twitter. In that case, we have to impose certain conditions. “Among the conditions he spoke of were the recognition of Russian as a second state language in Kazakhstan and the recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.

The Guardian’s analysis suggests that this could signify how some in Moscow are taking the CSTO alliance. Suppose Kasim Tokayev can thwart the protests with the cooperation of Moscow. In that case, Russia can expect something from Kazakhstan in return.