Why is Taiwan important to China?
For a long period of human civilization, China was economically ahead of the rest of the world, with the first organized bureaucracy developing in China. China was at the forefront of economic development as well as technology development. Many agricultural technologies like maps were first introduced in China. The darkest chapter of China’s glorious past began in 1939 and ended in 1949.
While the victory of Mao Zedong’s Red Army was going on in China, the then President of China fled to Taiwan with his subordinates. For the next two decades, the Kuomintang government represented the Republic of China to the international community. As a result, Taiwan is more than just an isolated territory for most Chinese. The reunification of Taiwan with mainland China is the latest step towards a “century of humiliation” for Chinese citizens.
Over the past few decades, China has nationally promoted Taiwan as part of China, created intellectual justification for its views on Taiwan, conducted political campaigns, and resorted to administrative pressure. At the same time, China has sought international support on the Taiwan question by creating its own ‘victimhood’ position. As a result, the Taiwan question has become deeply intertwined with nationalism for the Chinese. Citizens who disagree on the question of Taiwan, on the question of democracy or human rights, the Chinese are also questioned about nationalism. The question is also raised about patriotism. In many cases, any dissent on the Taiwan issue is strictly suppressed.
Historically, however, China is part of Taiwan, and this claim by Chinese nationalists is largely untrue. Taiwan’s communication with mainland China was extremely limited until the Ming Dynasty. The Ming Dynasty ruled from 136 to 1744. After the fall of the Ming Dynasty, European rule began in Taiwan. Taiwan was first occupied by the Portuguese, and then the Dutch took control of the country. Only during the Qing Dynasty was Taiwan associated with China.
The question of China’s strategic security
Whether it is the nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek or the communist government of Mao Zedong, everyone sees Taiwan as part of mainland China. China has consistently sought to occupy Taiwan since the 1950s, proposing a “one country, two policies” in the 1980s. Behind this philosophy of political leadership has worked the notion of China’s national security and the notion of strategic interests. From the time of Japanese colonial rule, Taiwan has been referred to as an ‘uninterrupted aircraft carrier,’ which is unlikely to sink.
Even after World War II, Taiwan’s military importance did not diminish. The United States had a military base in Taiwan. Plans were made to deal with a possible communist attack. Even today, the US East Asia policy revolves around Taiwan. Currently, two dozen members of the US Special Forces are engaged in training the Taiwanese army, with an unknown number of Marines present.
Chinese security analysts have always looked to Taiwan. Anti-China countries may consider military action against Taiwan. At the same time, US allies in East Asia, such as Japan and South Korea, have the advantage of having a military base. Beyond the challenge of a possible military strike from China, there are also trade-centric challenges. If China controls Taiwan, China will have an absolute advantage in the trade centered around the region’s seas. On the other hand, Taiwan’s hostile role could reduce China’s political authority in the region, as well as its trade opportunities.
The legitimacy of Xi Jinping’s authoritarianism
Xi Jinping became President of China in 2013 and was re-elected in 2016. In addition to the presidency, Xi Jinping is the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and chairman of the Central Military Commission. As a result, almost all of China’s political power has been centered around Xi Jinping, with Xi Jinping, the possessor of infinite power, practicing political incarnation. He has set the maximum ten-year term as president, clearing the way for a lifetime in power.
As a communist country, there has always been a crisis of acceptance of China’s political processes. In the latest Freedom House index, China has a minus 2 out of 40 on the political rights index and 11 out of 80 on the Civil Liberties Index. In China, there is no opportunity for free political action. Even if elections are held at the local level, they are manufactured elections. There is no election system for national-level leadership. There is no opportunity for accountability. The basic human rights that a person is born with – freedom of speech, freedom of livelihood, freedom of movement, right to personal security – none of these things exist in China. This is accompanied by political persecution, and any dissent is strictly suppressed.
Xi Jinping has taken China’s state control to a new level, targeting dissidents as well as Communist Party leaders. Xi Jinping has used the anti-corruption campaign as a political weapon. Using this campaign, he suppressed his political rivals and made his political life unrestrained.
The authoritarians of this genre have to use nationalism to maintain public support, to keep themselves relevant in politics, to maintain the political legitimacy of their rule. Tensions over Taiwan will save Xi Jinping from potential internal crises, helping to address potential risks to his regime. In times of deep crisis, authoritarians of this genre tend to resort to real or fake military action in order to maintain their rule. Because once the war starts, the citizens give more importance to the national interest than the constitutional cleansing, they are made to accept the necessary sacrifices. Whether or not Xi Jinping moves in that direction will determine the course of political events. But, if he thinks of creating potential military tensions, Taiwan will be a potentially easy option for him.
Control of the semiconductor industry
At present, Taiwan alone produces 63% of all semiconductors produced in different parts of the world. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has an annual market of about 100 billion. The Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing company alone produces about 54 percent of global demand. At present, the demand for semiconductors smaller than 10 nanometers is increasing again. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company made 74% of its total revenue last year by making such semiconductors. Currently, the United States and China are both customers of Taiwan-made semiconductors. At the same time, Taiwan is so advanced in this field that no one can challenge Taiwan’s dominance in this sector by setting up new companies.
Why doesn’t China invade Taiwan?
Political tensions between China and Taiwan have been simmering for decades. China has violated Taiwan’s airspace nearly a thousand times over the past few years. Taiwan is also building missile defense systems to counter possible Chinese attacks. Despite these political tensions between the two countries, trade activities are going on almost steadily. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner. China accounts for 26 percent of Taiwan’s total international trade. About 22.2 percent of Taiwan’s imported goods come from China. This rate is lower than Japan, the European Union, or the United States, known as Taiwan’s traditional allies.
Exports of Taiwanese products to China have also increased. In 2010, Taiwan exported 6 billion worth of goods to China, and by 2019, exports stood at 91 billion. In one year, in 2020, this amount will be 102 billion US dollars. Naturally, China and Taiwan have developed an interdependence on trade. Many Taiwanese are investing in Chinese territory, opening factories. There is a huge tourism industry between the two countries. Any kind of military instability or war could disrupt this trade relationship between the two countries, with negative consequences for the two countries economies. As a result, Taiwan, with its small territory and 1.5 percent of China’s total population, have taken advantage of China, using its economy to maintain its distinct ethnic identity.